13:11 — Wall Street set for cautious open as Fed decision and Microsoft earnings loom
Early doors, Wall Street looks to be on the fence ahead of the apparently uncertain Fed call later today.
Premarket indicators see the S&P 500 up just 0.12%, though the Dow is indicated 0.42% lower, and Nasdaq 100 points to a marginal gain.
Put in other words, less decisive signals either way.
On paper, the Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.5-3.75%, but markets are still pricing roughly a 30% chance of a hike, which is unusually high so close to the meeting.
It comes amid recent reluctance from new Chair Kevin Warsh to offer forward guidance.
Besides the Fed, the day promises other potential American triggers for markets as Big Tech earnings continue to stoke debate about the so-called AI bubble.
Tonight, it is Microsoft's turn to report earnings, after the New York market close and, for sure, there'll be scrutiny over AI-related capital spending.
12:31 — FTSE touches 10,900 as Standard Chartered, Weir, and Greggs among movers
At lunch, the FTSE 100 sat at near session highs, marked at 10,899, up 28.64 points or 0.26%.
Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN)'s record (LSE:REC) first-half profit remains a focus of attention and some scrutiny: Shore Capital analyst Gary Greenwood argued the bank's FY30 aspiration of an 18% return on tangible equity is "too distant to justify current valuations".
Paragon Banking Group has added to the mid-cap earnings tally, up 5.65% to a session high of 869.5p after saying trading stayed strong through the third quarter. Severfield confirmed its FY27 guidance with a strengthening order book, while Chapel Down reported 19% revenue growth in the first half.
Weir Group (LSE:WEIR) continued to anchor the FTSE gainers at 2702p, up 7.05% on record half-year order growth, with Greggs (LSE:GRG) still the index's standout at 1882.04p, up 11.36% and sitting at a fresh 52-week high.
Reckitt has extended its advance to 5436p, up 5.02%.
Among the fallers, Aberdeen (LSE:ABDN) (LSE:ABDN) slipped further to 236p, off 5.07%, while St James's Place (LSE:STJ) traded near a 52-week low at 1058.5p, down 2.44%.
09:51 — FTSE 100 steady at 10,888 amid Fed-day caution
The FTSE 100 was steady at 10,888.18, up 0.16%, with Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN) and Weir Group (LSE:WEIR) among the index's notable movers after both reported results this morning.
Another highlight was Reckitt Benckiser (LSE:RKT), up 2.5% at 5,304p, after the brand conglomerate confirmed an interim dividend of 88.6p against 84.4p a year ago.
Away from the interim bean-counting, the market is somewhat distracted with eyes towards US interest rates and today's looming Federal Reserve meeting, which, as DB's Jim Reid flagged, has the highest level of uncertainty so close to the meeting for around 8 years.
Market pundits predict a 32% probability of a rate hike, which is a material measure, but the predominant expectation predicts a hold for this month.
Kathleen Brooks, an analyst at XTB, in a note, said sterling could bounce back on a hold, with $1.3428, the 200-day moving average, as the key resistance level to watch.
09:01 — Weir Group jumps 9.75% on record order growth
As we revisit the morning's news flow, Weir Group (LSE:WEIR) (LSE:WEIR) is seen as the FTSE 100's top stock, rising nearly 10% to 2770p, after the mining equipment engineer's half-year results showed order growth of 8% year-on-year.
Weir, this morning, told investors that original equipment orders were up 10%, and aftermarket orders gained 8% on strong demand across copper, gold, iron and oil sands. Revenue rose 5%, and the group said full-year guidance is underpinned by improving momentum through the second quarter.
Reckitt Benckiser holds its gain at 5516p, up 6.57%, after confirming an interim dividend of 88.6p, up from 84.4p a year ago, alongside its buyback plan.
Kerry Group edges up 4.22% to 87.75p, within touching distance of its 52-week high of 90.8p, while Greggs (LSE:GRG) adds 3.36% to 1690p as its profit growth continues to draw buyers. Harbour Energy (LSE:HBR) climbs 3.21% to 237.6p.
On the small-cap board, Diaceutics holds its advance at 133.8p, up 5.77%, with its annual recurring revenue growth of 75% still supporting the move.
LPA Group (AIM:LPA) adds 5.59% to 89.75p after announcing a new £1.4 million rail contract to supply inter car jumper systems, with delivery running from February 2027 to May 2028.
Nexteq (AIM:NXQ) rises 6.38% to 50p following a mass production purchase order for its Tactila-branded Pro-AV display technology through its Densitron brand.
08:20 — Standard Chartered climbs as FTSE 100 opens on front foot
The FTSE 100 opened, as expected, slightly higher, marking a 0.2% gain at 10,893.
It comes as Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN) is doing the heavy lifting among blue-chips, with the international bank's shares climbing 3.48% to 2,170p after its half-year results.
Standard Chartered showed broad-based revenue growth, and in early reaction Hargreaves Lansdown's commentary described the quarter as stronger than expected.
Greggs (LSE:GRG) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN) sit close behind, up 3.36% and 3.0% respectively, both continuing the reaction to the morning's earnings slate, Greggs' profit rose 22.9% while Glencore held its copper and zinc guidance, with Glencore shares at a session high of 522.5p.
Elsewhere on the mover board, Allergy Therapeutics (AIM:AGY) was up 5.3% to 5.665p after guiding full-year revenue to £59.9 million, up 9%, alongside the launch of its Grassmuno grass pollen immunotherapy.
LPA Group (AIM:LPA) rose 5.59% to 89.75p on a new £1.4 million rail contract to supply inter-car jumper systems for a global train builder.
Predator Oil & Gas added 5.0% to 3.15p after confirming its rig contract to drill the MOU-6 well in Morocco.
Likewise Group (AIM:LIKE), which last night launched an equity raise, is the session's sharpest faller, down 11.94% to 29.5p.
Kerry Group rose 3.56% to 87.2p, near its session low, after reporting H1 group EBITDA of €558 million and adjusted EPS up 7.9% at constant currency, alongside new 2030 targets.
07:25 — FTSE 100 steady as Fed decision looms over volatile markets
London's premarket indication holds only a sliver higher ahead of Wednesday's open, with IG Market's out-of-premarket quote for the FTSE 100 at 10,888, up a meagre 0.08% on this summer's day.
Macro attention is split across inter-related focal points: central bankers, interest rates, inflation, the price of oil, geopolitics, the war in Iran, American politics and, ultimately, Donald Trump.
In the City, Deutsche Bank's macro strategy team (AIM:TEAM), led by analyst Jim Reid, has flagged elevated uncertainty around this week's Federal Reserve rate decision, with markets pricing a 32% probability of a hike as of last night.
To clarify, that's the highest degree of pre-meeting ambiguity the German bank said it has recorded since December 2018.
In the preview briefing note, DB points to oil prices and pressure on semiconductor stocks as complicating factors for the Fed's calculus.
06:46 — FTSE 100 seen firmer, Nikkei drops and crude rallies
The FTSE 100 is seen slightly firmer ahead of Wednesday's open, with IG Market's early pre-market quote marked at 10,867, down 12.4 points, or 0.11%.
It comes after a positive session for the UK benchmark, but a mixed session for Wall Street, and, in particular, the Nasdaq and the tech sector experiencing a seemingly rare moment of hesitation and scepticism. Investors have been cautious about the perceived "AI bubble" and the increasing challenge from Chinese AI labs.
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 571.93 points, or 1.1%, at 52,782, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 42.52 points, or 0.17%, to 24,889.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 added 0.28% to 7,434.17.
Now, several hours before Wednesday's New York open, the US futures are pointing to a softer morning.
Asian equities had a rougher session, with Japan's Nikkei 225 dropping 1,088 points, or 1.74%, to 61,276.85.
Elsewhere, the oil market was again rallying but remained in calmish waters, materially beneath recent peak pricing, with Brent crude oil up 2.76% at $84.35 and WTI up 3.25% at $81.19.
The price of gold slipped 0.2% to $4,030 an ounce. And, the dollar index eased 0.12% to 101.293, and cable is indicated at 1.3299, up 0.06%.
Bitcoin held steady at $63,924.37, up 0.11%, while Ethereum eased 0.51% to $1,909.90.
