Bridgepoint Group (LSE:BPT), the London-listed private markets investment manager, said on Wednesday that exceptional fund performance in Energy Capital Partners V would push 2026 EBITDA materially above current market consensus.
The company said the money multiple for ECP V as a whole exceeded three times at the end of June and is expected to rise above four times by 30 September, including a material increase in the valuation of portfolio company ProEnergy.
Because Bridgepoint holds a 13% share of the carry in that fund, it now expects performance-related earnings to represent around 37-39% of total income for the year to December, above the 20-25% range it had guided to at its interim results in July.
Bridgepoint cautioned that the third-quarter ProEnergy valuation still includes a substantial discount for execution risk and timing uncertainty, meaning the mark could rise further and push the year-end PRE proportion above that range.
Beyond ProEnergy's contribution, the company pointed to more consistent fund performance, a growing number of funds entering carry and higher carry allocations from its flagship private equity fund as reasons to lift its medium-term guidance: PRE is now expected to settle at 25-30% of total income, up from the previously guided 20-25%, with 2027 EBITDA margin guidance raised from the 55-60% range to around 60%.
"I'm delighted to announce a material upgrade in our expectations for 2026 EBITDA," said chief executive Raoul Hughes, adding that the improved outlook "means we are able to introduce a new capital distribution policy, with significantly increased shareholder distributions" as expected cash from performance-related earnings rises from £500m over the last five years to £2.4bn over the next five.
That £2.4bn figure combines expected cash receipts from PRE of £1.3bn by 2030, up from the £1bn flagged at the July interim results, with £1.1bn expected from co-investments.
Bridgepoint is rebasing its FY2026 dividend from around 10p per share to 15p, and from FY2027 will target total shareholder distributions of 40-60% of a new metric it calls "Cash from Profits", split between an ordinary dividend of 40-45% of earnings per share paid quarterly and additional ordinary or special dividends or buybacks to meet the overall target.
The company said it would retain net leverage below two times net debt to underlying EBITDA under the new framework, and will move to quarterly dividend payments from 2027; alongside the 4.8p interim dividend already announced in July, it declared a second interim dividend of 5.0p for the third quarter and intends to propose a 5.2p final dividend for 2026, subject to shareholder approval at the next AGM.
On fundraising, Bridgepoint has already passed its €28bn target for the mid-2024 to 2026 cycle a quarter early, with Bridgepoint Direct Lending IV closing at €5.1bn (up 76% on its predecessor fund), Energy Capital Partners VI closing at $8.1bn (up 84% on ECP V's $4.4bn), and Bridgepoint Europe VIII having raised €7.8bn of commitments toward an expected hard cap of €8.65bn.
The company confirmed shareholder approval for its acquisition of Kayne Anderson Real Estate was received at a general meeting on 1 October, alongside the necessary approvals from Kayne Anderson Real Estate's fund investors, with the deal now expected to close on 4 January 2027; guidance given today excludes any contribution from that transaction.
The second interim dividend of 5.0p per share goes ex-dividend on 22 October, with a record date of 23 October and payment on 12 November.