MJ Gleeson (LSE:GLE) warned on Friday that full-year profit will be weighted heavily towards the second half, with delivery of market consensus for the 2027 financial year dependent on a further recovery in buyer confidence.
The London-listed affordable housebuilder and strategic land promoter issued the trading update ahead of its annual general meeting, flagging a weaker first half as the government's new Your First Home scheme, aimed at first-time buyers, is not expected to launch for roughly five months.
Gleeson Homes reported open-market net reservation rates of 0.53 per site per week for the eight weeks to 1 November, against 0.52 in the comparable period last year, or 0.88 including bulk reservations versus 0.93 a year earlier.
The company said sales rates have improved from a weak summer but remain subdued, and warned that the gap between the scheme's announcement and its launch is likely to postpone demand and increase cancellations in the meantime.
On the land side, Gleeson Land is making progress toward final technical approval on the large site sale deferred from the last financial year, with the option exercise and completion expected within the next few months; the company flagged in June that this deferral alone would cut adjusted group profit before tax by around £7.5m against consensus, before trading updates in July put full-year adjusted profit broadly in line with a reduced consensus of £10.1m.
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The company secured planning permission on three sites but said adverse committee decisions following changes in political control after this year's local elections have pushed more sites to appeal.
Management said it remains positive on the medium-term outlook, strengthened by the prospect of the new scheme, though visibility on the timing of land disposals remains limited, and added that it is taking a cautious stance on working capital and site acquisitions.
A trading update covering the six months to 31 December is scheduled for 15 January, with half-year results due on 23 February.