Centrica (LSE:CNA) now expects retail adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be towards the lower end of its £500m–£800m guidance range and infrastructure adjusted EBITDA to be above the top end, while optimisation adjusted EBITDA remains around £250m.
The shift reflects warmer weather year-to-date, the shape of the commodity price curve and continued challenges in residential bad debt collection on the retail side, and higher realised prices supporting infrastructure, according to the company's AGM statement.
The company said it is progressing its strategy including the c.£370m acquisition of the 850MW Severn power station announced today, and that Severn is expected to make a small net loss in 2026 because of transaction and integration costs and lower summer revenues, with an expected contribution of £30m–£60m of EBITDA per annum from 2027.
Within Infrastructure, the Meter Asset Provider is on track to install over 1m meters in 2026 and the combined expected EBITDA contribution from MAP, Sizewell C and Grain LNG for the year remains around £175m.
Centrica expects capital investment in 2026 to be around £1.1bn and said the outlook is subject to usual uncertainties including weather, commodity prices, regulation and government policy and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, ahead of interim results on 23 July.
