Deutsche Bank has raised its price target on Diageo (NYSE:DEO) to 1759p from 1650p, implying upside of around 13% to the 1551.50p close, while reiterating its Buy rating on the global spirits group.
Analyst Mitch Collett argues that a sustained pick-up in promotional activity across Diageo's US portfolio, visible in Nielsen scan data, signals the company is taking active steps to defend shelf position and address the volume declines that have weighed on North American performance.
The standout figure is a 320 basis-point year-on-year increase in the proportion of Diageo's US value sales on promotion in the four weeks to 13 June, with the case-volume measure up an even sharper 440 basis points, both the largest monthly increases recorded in the current trend; key brands driving the promotional push include Casamigos (up 910 basis points year-on-year), Captain Morgan (up 770 basis points), Smirnoff (up 550 basis points) and Crown Royal (up 330 basis points), though all four continue to post volume declines.
Diageo's full-year Strategy Update, due alongside fiscal 2026 results on 6 August, will be the next test of whether promotional investment is translating into improved US competitiveness.
