Shore Capital, in a note, argued that investors watching Cranswick's headline poultry and pork capacity projects are overlooking a quieter growth story building in the food producer's Mediterranean Foods business.
Cranswick, the UK-based integrated food producer known for fresh pork, poultry and gourmet prepared foods, has drawn attention this year for major capital projects including an upgrade to primary pig facilities at Hull and a prospective second primary poultry site.
Shore Capital, which is "the house" broker for Cranswick, doesn't have a formal rating or price target accompanying this note, though the broker points to a FY29 share price view of around 7,500p (the current price is 5,220p).
The broker focuses on a decade of delivery, in which Cranswick has compounded earnings per share at around 11% annually between FY16 and FY26, built on market-leading facilities, sustained capital spending above two times depreciation, and strong cash conversion.
Against that backdrop, Shore Capital said that the Mediterranean Foods segment, spanning the Worsley site, expansion in Bury and the Katsouris Foods business in Wembley, could see combined sales grow by 50-75% or more through to FY30 and beyond as those facilities mature.
"We see capacity for combined Mediterranean Foods sales of £450-525m in the medium term," the broker said.
Shore Capital framed the view alongside broader expectations of strong, broad-based earnings and dividend growth for Cranswick, contingent on continued delivery and the potential confirmation of a further poultry facility referred to as "Eye in the North".
The broker note follows Cranswick's first-quarter update, in which pet products and poultry drove volume-led growth even as export demand from China and other markets softened.
