If Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies were supposed to be decoupled, detached, safe-haven stores of value then it seems the retail trading bracken isn't on-message.
Javier Molina, market analyst for eToro, in a note, pointed to $1.6 billion in liquidations recorded in crypto markets over the past 24 hours and said it marks the largest "deleveraging event" in crypto market since Februar.y
The more important signal, according to Molina, is roughly $3.67 billion of spot-Bitcoin ETF outflows over the last two weeks, with spot demand said to be falling to its lowest level of the year, amid a rotation of capital towards equities and AI-related investments.
That the crypto-crowd may be looking to pour capital into upcoming would-be 'blockbuster' IPOs such Elon Musk's SpaceX, Sam Altman's OpenAI or Dario Amodei's perhaps exascerbates the pivot out of crypto.
Molina reckons these retail investors, who he describes as newer market participants and leveraged traders rather than long-term Bitcoin holders, aren't necessarily indicative of crypto sentiments more broadly.
Similarly, he cautions that ETF outflows should not automatically be interpreted as institutional selling because a significant portion of ETF exposure is ultimately held by retail investors, and points out bitcoin still trading above its realised price.
It looks like a reset in positioning and sentiment rather than a deep bear-market capitulation, the analyst claims.
As supporting signals Molina highlights the $1.6 billion liquidation figure as a 24‑hour peak since February, the $3.67 billion ETF outflow tally over the prior two weeks and the drop in spot demand to its weakest point this year, which, he says, suggest selling is concentrated among recent buyers.
"The key question now is whether selling pressure remains concentrated among recent buyers or begins to spread more broadly across the market," Molina commented.
