A trading update from Ryanair reassured investors this week, but not enough for Deutsche Bank analyst Jaime Rowbotham, who sticks with a 'Buy' rating but cut his price target to €28 from €30 (vs current price of €24.78).
The broker's view factors a weaker unit revenue outlook than it had expected: booking trends improved after the preliminary US/Iran peace deal on 14 June, but not enough to offset damage to pricing from fragile consumer confidence and plentiful short-haul seat growth across the industry.
DB also cut its September-quarter fares-per-passenger forecast from +1% year-on-year to -3%, and, combined with an €80m revenue-driven miss against its June-quarter profit-after-tax estimate, has lowered its full-year 2027 net profit forecast by roughly €300m, or 15%, to €1.8bn from €2.1bn.
That revision implies net profit per passenger of €8.3, down from €10.8 in FY26, a figure the broker built its lowered estimates roughly.
Put simply, the analyst rubbed out and re-pencilled in to newly lower expectations but not low enough to break the Buy rating.
Elsewhere, Panmure Liberum moved its comparatively less flighty prior target higher, to €27.50 from €26.50, and also repeated a Buy rating.
The broker notes a mismatch it sees between airline industry capacity growth plans and elevated jet fuel prices, arguing the two are ultimately incompatible. Indeed, Ryanair flagged its own unhedged fuel exposure as a near-term cost pressure after unhedged jet fuel prices more than doubled in the first quarter.
