Mobico Group (LSE:MCG), the international bus, coach and rail operator, has raised its adjusted operating profit guidance for calendar year 2026 to £215m-£230m, up from £195m-£210m previously, after posting a 17.6% rise in adjusted operating profit to £231m for the 15 months ending 31 March 2026.
Adjusted revenue climbed 5.9% to £3.42bn over the extended reporting period, with growth led by Alsa's Spanish operations and the restoration of full service levels across Mobico's German rail business. Statutory operating profit, however, fell to £11.7m as the group absorbed £219.3m of one-off adjusting items, including non-cash impairments and provision increases.
UK Coach remained a weak spot, with revenue down 7.0% and losses widening to £22.9m amid heightened competition, though the group said integration benefits with Alsa should aid the division through the rest of the year.
Covenant gearing stood at 2.9x at period-end, with liquidity of £0.8bn made up of £242m in net cash and an undrawn £600m revolving credit facility. Free cash flow fell to £131.8m from £215.9m previously.
The group signed revised German Rail contracts with five regional transport authorities in June 2026 and remains on track to deliver £100m of annualised cost savings by 2027.
News Intelligence what this means for the company
Mobico raised its 2026 operating profit guidance to £215m–£230m, anchored on adjusted operating profit of £231m for the 15 months to March and revenue growth of 5.9% to £3.42bn, with Spanish operator Alsa offsetting weakness in UK Coach. However, the upgrade arrives alongside a material uncertainty over going concern flagged by auditors and rising covenant gearing, signalling that near-term operational momentum masks balance-sheet stress.
The guidance lift reflects real operational progress in Spain, but the going-concern warning and tightening leverage suggest the company is navigating a narrowing financial runway. Investors may view the profit forecast as conditional on sustained Alsa performance and successful refinancing or deleveraging.
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