Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says SpaceX’s planned early‑June IPO, potentially valuing the company up to $1.75 trillion and expected to raise $40–$80bn, could become the defining stress‑test for the AI-led mega-cap trade.
She argues the case rests on an unusually large 30% retail allocation, the prospect of two megacap listings within weeks (SpaceX and OpenAI), and the odds that headline supply plus retail interest will force redistribution within the Magnificent Seven.
Brooks points to supporting signals already evident in markets, including Nvidia’s bumper results, European satellite names rallying (Eutelsat +12%, OHB +3%), Brent trading around $105, weaker European PMIs (UK flash PMI 48.5) and softer bond yields, all of which complicate the backdrop for a smooth absorption of new supply.
The calendar test, she says, is immediate: SpaceX’s early‑June float and the expected OpenAI listing in the coming weeks will show whether markets can take two AI-centric giants without destabilising current leaders.
