Question 1

What did several strategists report about the implied probability of a July hike?

Accepted Answer

Several strategists reported a marked fall in the implied probability of a July hike and a reduction in near-term tightening bets.

Question 2

What has recent coverage identified the Federal Reserve as the subject of?

Accepted Answer

Recent coverage identifies the Federal Reserve as the subject of announcements and commentary concerning interest-rate decisions and their timing.

Question 3

What did Polymarket contracts indicate about the July decision?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket contracts moved sharply after Warsh’s first meeting, with current pricing indicating about a 95% chance of the July decision being a hold and platform volume running into the tens of millions of dollars.

Question 4

How did Polymarket traders reprice the probability of the Fed holding rates at the July meeting?

Accepted Answer

By 2026-07-15 Polymarket traders repriced the probability to about 95% (up from ~66.5% before Warsh's first meeting); the platform's "Fed Decision in July" contract had traded roughly $18.7 million as of 14:29 UTC on 2026-07-15 and overall event volume stood near $63.0 million.

Question 5

What do the provided sources focus on regarding the Federal Reserve?

Accepted Answer

The provided sources focus on monetary policy decisions, specifically interest-rate timing, and on proposals for structural reform of the Federal Reserve.

Timeline

Federal Reserve

Gold rebounds and copper recovers as dollar weakens and Fed hold bets firm

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