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Transport & Logistics Ryanair Broker Note

Ryanair still seen as a buy despite risks of rising costs

A buy rating on the European low‑cost airline implies roughly 43% upside, but Deutsche Bank warns the outlook is challenged after a mixed quarter.

by tickstock newsroom
Passengers are boarding a Ryanair flight via rear stairs on a rain-wet tarmac. The aircraft's tail and fuselage dominate the upper frame as travellers, equipped with carry-on bags and wearing hoods to shield against the drizzle, climb the portable stairs. A ground crew member in a high-visibility vest gestures to the next group waiting to board, highlighting the efficient nature of modern air travel amid dreary weather. aiImage created using AI — nano_banana_2

Ryanair, the European low‑cost airline, is rated Buy by Deutsche Bank with a €31.50 target, implying about 43% upside to the 22.02 closing price.

Analyst Jaime Rowbotham, in a note, described the group's fourth quarter as better‑than‑expected, with its net loss of €396m driven by stronger revenue, with fares per passenger up 8% year‑on‑year, and that end‑March net cash was €2.08bn with roughly €600m of the €750m buyback completed.

However, he cautions that management sees 1Q fares down by a mid‑single digit percentage because of Easter timing and hesitancy, 2Q fares broadly flat, and FY27 unit costs could rise by a mid‑single digit percentage.

DB points to a 8% fares uplift as the key issue to watch, and added that rising costs make the c.€2.3bn FY27 consensus profit vulnerable, and noted the shares have fallen c.24% year‑to‑date. Currently, the airline trades at about 10x FY27 EPS versus a one‑year forward average of c.14x even as management may extend the CEO's contract to 2032.

by tickstock newsroom