Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says markets are shrugging off a messy geopolitical backdrop because of the current earnings cycle.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs after Wall Street's strongest monthly gains since 2020-is the dominant driver of sentiment, Britzman highlighted in a note.
He argues the rally is not purely a tech story, with beats filtering through healthcare, industrials and consumer staples, and an AI investment cycle helping, but warns that sustained oil at or above $100 a barrel would eventually reassert broader economic costs.
Supporting signals include Apple’s upgrade-led guidance implying 14-17% group revenue growth versus expectations nearer 9%, NatWest’s update showing profit upside from cost discipline and strong capital generation rather than income growth, and gold trading above $4,600 an ounce as a weaker dollar meets higher-for-longer rate expectations.
"Global markets are in one of those strange phases where the news looks messy, but the tape looks almost bulletproof," Matt Britzman said.
