Panmure Liberum has repeated a 'buy rating on Greencoat UK Wind (LSE:UKW), with a 105p price target, implying a 17% total shareholder return, after the renewables fund reported its best quarterly NAV showing since December 2022.
The analyst Shonil Chande, in a note, says the UK‑listed wind infrastructure owner saw NAV per share rise 0.5% to 134.2p in Q1, driven by generation 4.2% above budget, net cash generation up 11% y‑o‑y to £131m and 2.3x dividend cover, and that strong Q1 generation plus higher power prices should flow into Q2 and support full‑year guidance for EBITDA of £560-660m and dividend cover of 1.7x.
Chande highlights power‑price assumption changes that added 1.2p to NAV (partially offset by a c.1p drag from weaker long‑term consult curves), a reduced impact from removal of the carbon price support of -2.1p versus an initial -3.5p, a +3p benefit from higher UK inflation, an increase of 50bps in the implied portfolio levered discount rate to 11.5%, and Q1 hedges of 1TWh that have fixed c.68% of next‑12‑month cash flows at NAV‑accretive levels.
Panmure Liberum says the immediate catalyst is continued above‑budget wind generation, DESNZ monthly data show wind speeds have normalised since May 2025, with Q2 net cash generation and delivery of c.1.7x dividend cover the near‑term proof points for the thesis.
