Cerillion (AIM:CER), the billing, charging and customer relationship management software provider to the telecoms sector, warned that its full-year results will come in behind consensus market forecasts for the year ending 30 September.
Revenue is now expected to be in the range of £46m to £48m, with adjusted EBITDA margin between 43% and 45%, against prior consensus estimates of £52.80m revenue and a 45.2% margin.
That compares with £45.4m revenue and a 50.9% adjusted EBITDA margin in the prior financial year.
The shortfall stems from delayed or deferred new and existing customer orders, including software licence expansions and upgrades, the London-headquartered company said.
Major implementations continue to progress, with the transformation project at UCom nearing completion and software installation finished at Omantel.
Cerillion said its back-order book remains strong, the new customer pipeline remains healthy and its balance sheet is very robust.
The update follows the company's interim results on 1 June, which had flagged a significant second-half weighting to the year's performance.
While second-half results will be significantly ahead of the first half, the Board now expects the full-year outturn to fall short of consensus.
Full-year results are expected at the end of November.
News Intelligence what this means for the company
Cerillion warned that full-year revenue will land at £46–48m, well below the £52.80m consensus forecast, with adjusted EBITDA margin contracting to 43–45% versus the expected 45.2%. The miss stems from delayed or deferred customer orders across new deals and existing licence expansions. While major implementations at UCom and Omantel are progressing and the back-order book remains strong, the near-term revenue shortfall signals execution risk and customer hesitation in a key growth segment.
The forecast miss—revenue 12–14% below consensus—materially weakens near-term visibility and raises questions about the timing and conversion of the stated healthy pipeline. Management's assertion of a robust balance sheet and strong back-order book offers some downside protection, but the scale of the order delay suggests either macro headwinds in telecom capex or deal-specific friction that warrant clarification at the November results.
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