Tamas Varga, analyst at ICAP-owned PVM Oil Associates has highlighted that falling WTI and Brent prices, off almost $6/bbl last week with a further $4 decline this morning, reflect growing market expectations that the conflict in Iran may be winding down ahead.
He points to the reported memorandum’s mechanics, a 60‑day extension of the April 8 ceasefire, Iranian forces clearing mines in the first 30 days, a no‑tolls window and a US lift of its naval blockade enabling Iranian exports, as the immediate drivers that would restore Persian Gulf flows while warning intermittent strikes show the road to stability will be uneven.
“The truce would go a long way towards breathing life back into the oil market,” he says, and Friday’s expected signing is the immediate test of whether flows, liquidity and speculative interest genuinely return.
