Shell (LSE:SHEL) told investors it expects a large working‑capital outflow and a material non‑cash net‑debt increase in the first quarter of 2026 as volatility in commodity markets and the Middle East conflict complicate its operating picture.
"In light of the ongoing situation in the Middle East, the outlook provided is subject to increased uncertainty," the company said.
At segment level, Integrated Gas production is guided at 1,760–1,860 kboe/d for Q1, with LNG liquefaction volumes set to reflect the ramp‑up of LNG Canada offset by weather issues in Australia and outages at Qatar LNG. Sales volumes are pencilled in at 2,550–2,650 kb/d. Shell noted reduced production following the Adura JV incorporation and portfolio changes in Nigeria onshore and the UK since Q1 2025. Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be "significantly higher than Q1’25", while Trading & Optimisation should be broadly in line with Q4 2025.
In Chemicals & Products the company flagged indicative margins of $140/tonne for refining and $139/tonne for chemicals, and said Chemicals adjusted earnings are likely to be similar to Q1 2025. Trading & Optimisation in this division is expected to be "significantly higher than Q4’25".
Renewables and Energy Solutions is forecast to post negative adjusted earnings of $(1.0)–$(0.8) billion in the quarter.
At the Group level Shell expects working‑capital movements of $10–15 billion outflow, reflecting "unprecedented volatility in commodity prices on inventory and receivables". It also warned of a $3–4 billion increase in the variable components of long‑term shipping leases that will affect non‑cash net‑debt.
The update reiterates that these are outlook ranges excluding identified items and cautions that forward‑looking non‑GAAP measures cannot be reconciled to GAAP without information dependent on future market conditions. Shell’s full Q1 2026 results are scheduled for publication on May 7, 2026; a market consensus compiled by Vara Research is expected on April 29, 2026.
