Heathrow Funding Limited (LSE:44BI)'s June 2026 Investor Report, published on behalf of the Heathrow group, cuts the base-case passenger forecast for the full year to 83.6 million, a 1.1% decline year on year, with a downside scenario of 80.1 million if Middle East volatility continues to suppress global travel demand.
The airport carried 32.8 million passengers in the five months to May 2026, up 0.7% on the same period a year earlier, supported by larger aircraft and stronger connecting traffic, but the report flags that the conflict in the Middle East is already exerting "notable downward pressure" on volumes.
Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are forecast to fall £147 million against 2025 and £60 million below the December investor report projection, with aeronautical revenue down £49 million on prior forecasts due to the softer traffic outlook.
Liquidity headroom is described as strong at 18 to 24 months, and the report states no covenant breach is expected even under a stress scenario where passenger numbers fall to 69 million.
On the regulatory front, the Civil Aviation Authority's H8 Initial Proposals, published in March, were characterised by Heathrow as lacking "a clear or investable pathway," with the CAA's Final Proposals now expected in November 2026 and a Final Decision targeted for April 2027.
Capital expenditure for the H7 regulatory period is held at £4.7 billion, with £1.266 billion allocated to 2026.
