AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould warns JD Wetherspoon faces an ongoing cost crunch that could leave profits for the year to July below pre‑pandemic levels even though sales are roughly £400m higher than in the year to July 2019.
Mould says the pub group is being squeezed by higher national insurance, utility bills, wages and business rates, and by competition from rival pubs, supermarkets and other leisure options that are gobbling up like‑for‑like sales.
He notes analysts were already forecasting pre‑tax income of about £73m for the year to July versus £81m last year and £102m in 2019, while net debt is expected to rise to £740-760m from £724m at July 2025 and the company has returned more than £100m to investors through buybacks over the last two years.
“Mr Martin has flagged 'substantial' increases in costs and as a result the company may not meet analysts' profit forecasts for the year to July,” the chairman said.
